How to make the best decisions — A checklist

In my last article, I talked about something most people love to know — “How to make better decisions.” I suggest you read it before this.

After some reflection, I compressed everything into handy checklists I go through before making important decisions.

A piece of advice though. You don’t have to go through this list for every single decision. That will be exhausting. Instead, save it for decisions that have a reasonable impact on your life.

For example, don’t waste your time applying this to the decision of which table to sit at in a restaurant — that’s pretty inconsequential. Such decisions are inconsequential. But, when it comes to things like starting a business, this checklist can be a real guide.

That said, here are the questions I ask myself before making any important decisions — all organized by the cognitive bias you should watch out for.

Narrow framing —

• Have I considered going for both of your options? Is there a way I can do this AND that?
• If my current options were to vanish, what else can I do then?
• Have I searched for others who have gone through a similar challenge?
• Have I done something similar before? How did I solve it?

Confirmation bias

• Have I looked for information against your venture? Did I seek out disconfirming information? Have I considered the challenges? The problems?
• Have I considered Outside Views? — Have I checked statistics? Do I know what others are saying about this?
• Have I talked to an expert? — Don’t ask suggestive questions. Ask questions that make them tap into their knowledge of how it is currently being in that industry. Eg. “What are the odds of my venture surviving?” instead of “Do you think my venture will survive?”
• Have I ooched? — Have I found an inexpensive way to test my ideas? How can I test my ideas without committing much to them?

Short-term emotion

• Have I distanced myself from the decision? — Am I getting too attached? Take a walk for 10 mins.
• Have I asked — “What will I recommend my friend to do in this situation?” “What will someone who has no knowledge [hence no emotional attachment] of what I know do?”
• Have I used the 10/10/10 principle? How would I feel 10 mins from now? 10 months? 10 years?
• Have I sought advice from neutral colleagues?
• What are my core priorities? What are my long-term goals? Does the decision I am about to make align with it?

Overconfidence

• Have I considered the reasons my venture might fail? — Have I used prospective hindsight? Say I come from the future where my venture failed, list out reasons why that happened.
• Have I then given myself a safe margin of error? — After considering I might be wrong, did I account for it?
• Have I set tripwires? — Have I set a deadline? Have I set a min and max amount? Have I set breaks/blocks that force me to stop or start taking certain actions?

It’s important to know that answering these questions may not always lead to the perfect outcome. However, it’s a great way to recognize any biases that could influence your decision-making. Staying aware of these biases can be incredibly useful in the long run.

That’s all for now!

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